There seem to be some natural stopping points in campus ministry--places that growth stalls out.

The Stopping Points

• 12: at this point the group has a hard time viewing itself as anything other than a cell group. In fact, it's dangerous to start having a large group meeting at this size. Some people can pull it off, but it would be better to get two or three Bible studies going and then combine them when you launch a worship service. See Launching College Ministry.
• 30: at this point the group values intimacy and community so much that they begin to sabotage growth (unknowingly). You need to teach that it's okay not to know everybody in the group. In addition, it's at this point that a college minister first begins to feel the strain of meeting everyone's needs. You must build a team of leaders! Remember Jethro And Moses!
• 70: something usually sticks here - either your worship isn't on par with the preaching, or the fellowship times aren't as fun as the worship is good, or some other critical factor is missing. Find it and fix it.
• 120: at this point the obstacle to growth will not be how you relate to your students but how you relate to your leaders. Your student leaders need to undergo the same paradigm shifts as regards the leadership as they did regarding the group as a whole. In fact, what has probably happened is that the ones who were there at 30 never really had to give up the community that they treasured so much--they just all became leaders together. Now the intimacy of the leaders is threatened. Go back over the same stuff with the same people... (get used to this theme in ministry, by the way).
• 200: at this point your group should have an extremely well-developed small group system, a deep leadership pool, awesome worship, and be taking several missions trips a year. So what stalls? Vision. The group is everything people hoped it could be. Also, the group is becoming more and more inwardly focused and less and less outwardly focused. Consciously assign staff and money to outreach even if it means making some of your members unhappy.
• 400: it's just hard to get past this point. Most campuses don't seem to be able to sustain a group past this point in non-revival periods. Do a bunch a stuff and let us know what works. :)
• Beyond?: they probably exist beyond this point, but very few college ministries ever have to worry about them. See Mega College Ministries.

Church Parallels

There are lot of books out there that talk about church growth barriers. Those are not the same as college ministry growth barriers, because when churches talk attendance they're talking about every member of the family (and sometimes I think they count the pets, too).

To get a more useful comparison, take the church numbers and divide them by around 3. That's how many distinct family units the church is dealing with (and how many you would be dealing with if you drew the same crowd 15 years later in their lives).

Closing The Door Behind Them

A theme that you will notice is that everyone idealizes the group as it was when they joined it. If they joined at 30, they yearn for the 30 days. If they joined at 70, they look wistfully at those glory days.

It makes sense--they joined the group then because they liked it then. They didn't necessarily sign up for change. Help them to see that the only reason the group was perfect for them was because other people sacrificed their preferences to accomodate them. Why should they be the ones to close the door behind them and say, "70 and no more"?

Campus Equilibrium

There seems to be a natural equilibrium point at most four-year schools. Usually, about 8-12% of the campus will be involved in campus ministry at any given time, and the groups will tend to sort themselves out sizewise according to a power law (also known as a scaling law: the biggest will be roughly twice as big as the next largest ministry and roughly three times as large as the third largest ministry, etc).

Usually there's one really large ministry, two or three ministries about 1/2 to 2/3 its size, and a whole host of smaller ministries.

There's probably a similar pattern at community colleges, but nobody knows that for sure yet.

This isn't destiny, so don't freak out if you're starting up on a campus that's already got 15 ministries and 15% of the campus involved in ministry. Focus on reaching the other 85%. Until 100% are reached, the campus has room for more.